Over the past year I have noticed a new generation of players coming in. This generation is worrying to the whole forum alliance business, due to the 6 main subgroups of new players.
Inactives: These people play once to try it out and never come back. There are probably thousands of people like this who have joined in the last few months. Why should they be here?
Airlines Only: These people only play the game. They only browse through the forum, they don't actively participate in it. There is almost no hope of recruitment.
Spammers with forum presence: These people are usually rejected from alliances but flock to the Star Alliances, OneWorlds, and Skyteams in game worlds, making up what looks to be 50% of alliance traffic. However, it is safe to say that 70% of the players in this game are spammers.
Spammers who Apply: Spammers who apply for forum alliances are looking for rejection. Our rules and regulations usually keep them out, but they are always trying, it seems.
Realistic Players with forum presence: There are many realistic players in these game worlds, whether it's those who have been here and love airlines, to those looking for a daily challenge.
Realistic Players who Apply: Many realistic players are accepted into forum alliance, but still not all.
Now you're thinking, what's this got to do with alliances?
Well, assume that these are split evenly, 16.67% of AE players are in each category. So 16.67% are spammer, 16.67% are inactive, etc. This equates to forum alliance application to 33% of AE players, Spammers who apply and Realistics who apply. However, assuming that 50% of realistic players make it into forum alliances, only 8% of new members will be joining forum alliances. I don't know exactly how many players there are, there might be 10,000, there might be 1,000,000. On the low end, there's 800 people of 10,000 players in alliances.
However, we know this is wrong because everything is out of proportion. If we assume that 10% of new players are one-timers, 15% are airline-only, 50% are Spammers, 10% are Spammers who apply, 5% are realistics of the forum, and 5% are Realistic Players who apply, then all of the sudden the numbers change, now only 250 people apply out of the entire community. This is probably less than it really is, but this is still worrying for the future of alliances.
Without new blood, forum alliances are subject to becoming stale, and are at the mercy of the members. People like Kai, who have been here for a long time, are the people who we can trust to stay with the game. But people are going to leave the game. One day, someone's airline will either become bankrupt for the first (or 50th) time and they won't have the energy to restart that airline or make a new one. They'll forget about the game and leave it for good, maybe their alliance as well. Or they'll become busy in their lives and forget about AE too. Attrition is very dangerous to forum alliances, because if there are only 20 people left, they'll be gone. The inactive alliance list is already over 15 alliances long.
So what's the solution here? Do forum alliances lower the strictness of their rules to let the spammers into the alliance? Do we hope the next generation are all realistic players who can boost our ranks? Do we let forum alliances become a thing of the past? Or can we do something about it?
Thanks for reading this long piece! I'd love to hear the discussion here!