this is an interesting one, we can always throw some numbers around for fun while we wait for the official figures to roll in.
Please excuse if these numbers are wrong or make little sense, im afraid my hangover from last night is still strong.
So currently SA Airline serves the Island on a weekly basis from JNB via WDH on to HLE on the Embraer E190
That aircraft will only be allowed to use 76 of 87 seats and block the rest off to allow the aircraft to make the trip. This is beacuse of HLE runway,range,payload issues,engine ops etc.
So lets say 4 flights per month inbound to HLE at full pax volume = 304 pax per month
times that by the full 52 weeks in a year so 304 * 12 months = 3648 pax per year at 100% load factor
Now we know that those figures are not realistic so lets keep that load factor at a more realistic 80% so that equals 60 seats per flight available only, that seems a bit low so lets lift that to about 65 seats per flight or about 85% load factor.
so 65 seats *4 weeks = 260 * 12 months = 3120 pax per year ish.
Now we do have that charter flight also operated by Airlink to Acsension Island once a month, so lets add those flights inbound pax figures from Ascension Island as well just for kicks.
65 per month * 12 months = 780 pax per year extra.
so a grand total of 3900 pax per year inbound, times that by two to get 7800 pax per year total, im guessing the airport will operate at around 5000-10000 perhaps even close to 15000 pax per year in the first operating year.
Now this abviously does not include any extra airline operating any future services nor does it include any special holiday or military charters etc. Just the basic service the airport now receives and those possible figures. Again those could be totally wrong, just wanted some insight into the pax amounts the airports would be operating at while it started up.
https://flyairlink.c...r St Helena.pdf