27 replies to this topic

[Tump]

Ok this post will obviously start a discussion, but please observe to be nice and anwser in normal language and don't just shout something out. I don't want this to be a typical Airliners.net discusion.


The future of aviation

In the current aviation industry we have only 4 large manufacturers left:
Boeing
Airbus
Bombardier
Embraer
As you can see, I only mention civil aircraft manufacturers and only Western.

All others are gone, or are not big enough to make a difference. (Though you might disagree on that please don't go into that since that isn't the point of this post.)

The current situation is: Boeing has slightly older designs than Airbus (that's a fact) and Airbus clearly has an advantage over Boeing with his better worked out design and with more improved technology. Embraer and Bombardier are fighting over the regional market and as of now both seem to do well.

However, with the current industry suffering from high oil prices, which will not get any lower anymore many airlines will go down, eventually. I am not surprised if for example, Delta, Northwest, United, Alitalia, Swiss and Varig will go under in the next decade. (Not saying it will actually happen!)

But as we all can see, the airline industry isn't doing a bloody thing to come up with a solution. Oh yes of course, they're upgrading designs (Example: CO's winglet fitted 752s), and on top of that Airbus thinks it can win in the large aircraft section with its A380 and A345/346. But it seems they are forgetting some things: Oil is running out, fuel prices will rise, and so will ticket prices do, less people will fly, less will go on holiday since they gotta keep paying their gas-bill and what to think about your car..... The A380 is prestige, but a product that will only remain profitable for a maximum of 15 years. My guess is that in 15 to 30 years all aircraft will be so bloody expensive to operate that the whole industry needs to put the hands together to design a new type of engine and fuel. (Just fuel would be best....) Boeing with their 787 is designing a product that will become a bridge between this generation of airlines and the next. The 787 is, even how futuristic it looks, an old-school airline if I might say so flying on kerosine. But the new materials and construction methods will prove a vital role for Boeing in the next 20 years. Expect the 787 to be like the 707, a bridge between two aircraft generation that provides new knowledge and understanding and it is to Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier to keep up. In my opinion Airbus is making a huge mistake on the A350; I am confident it will sell, but certainly not more than 400 airframes. It is old technology and desing combinded with something that must be able to match Boeing's 787. Now I am not saying the 787 will be a huge succes. In fact I don't think it will sell over 1,000 airframes, but it will be the base of a new family of airliners like the 707 was. Airbus will find itself in the position Boeing is in now. Behind on competition in terms of technology (don't think there will be such a huge gap, but of course, something that can be clearly seen)
Embraer will make enough money with their current products to keep up with the big boys, especially with their 170/175/190/195 family, but Bombardier can get into some trouble. They recently lowered production on the CRJ's cause the numbers of orders is falling behind expectations and the Q-series is doing just ok, but will it be enough. Their waterbombers had their time as well, and the business jets they make are doing just average.

In other words:
Boeing will introduce the new generation of aircrafts (but it remains questionable if they will become the market leader again, who knows what Airbus comes up with?)
Airbus will have to follow Boeing and will find itself in the position Boeing is in now.
Embraer has not much to worry about, just when the time is there move on with the big boys.
Bombardier could find itself in some trouble if they don't come to solutions soon to improve their orders.

I left the former Soviets companies and Military aviation manufacturers out to keep it based to something AE is actually based on.



Let the (civilised) discussion begin!

P.S. moderators can you remove all post like "No Airbus is better" "Boeing stinks" "Embraer makes good aircraft" - I'm sure you get what I mean

[Maestro69]

I wonder how long that thesis took to type and post on the AE forums (j/k)

[StephenM]

I believe that Bombardier will do well in the future due to the current and foreseeable oil problems, as the QX00's are quite good with fuel economy while also delivering speed and in some respects competitive capacity.

I would like to see more research done into Hydrogen powered aircraft, that would be interesting as an alternative to oil.

[piercey]

Airbus - holding judgement until next A32X. If there isn't one in the works, they are screwed.

Boeing - 787 will be revolutionary, but what about the 737, 747? They both need a replacement. And there still is a HUGE hole that the 757 had that Boeing should take advantage of for a 797.

Bombardier - QX00s don't have any customers, and their #1 prospect (NW) is entering bankruptcy or coming darn close. Expect that to get canceled, they came too late. The CRJ will continue to sell and will be their premimier product for the next few years.

Embraer - My stocks are in this company. It won't be long until they make a widebody. They stole a bunch of loyal Airbus and Boeing customers with the E-Jets. I don't know about the ERJ, the CRJ seems better, but if Embraer decides to go up in size, Brazil could be an aviation power within 10 yrs, hence why I have stock in ERJ.

Japan - Here is the big question mark. They are right now experimenting, but if any of those experimenters head to the production line, the current big four could be in trouble. Esp. look out for Honda, they have a bunch of backups (auto, bike, ATV, marine, etc.) that if they fail in aviation, they'll retreat, lick their wounds, and come back a few years later until they either give up or hit perfection.

[airline55]

What I see:

797 will be the 737 replacement.
747-500 will be continue the reign of the 747 until 2012 (at least)
Once Boeing is done with the 787 and 747ADV the will launch two replacements at once (or within six months of each other), there will be the 757 replacement with NW and BA as lauunch airlines and a joint 747/777 replacement launched by BA and JAL(?)


I don't know aabout airbus, they seemed to have choosen a lost battle to try to fight (A350). THey already have airlines signed on, so Airbus will go ahead and build the plane, but they could fall behind Boeing (agian) if they are not careful.
Japan is to friendly with boeing to launch an aircraft maker of its own. Although it would not be too shocking if Boeing started building a plane in Japan because of the high number of workers available. However, Boeing is and always will be an American Company.

[airline55]

I think we could see a Hydrogen Jet within 2010-2020. Ford and GM are already developing Hydorgen cars, and already have test fleets driving around Detroit (rather odd-looking things!) and if they can get the Hydrogen tech. down pat, Boeing could build off that. If Boeing builds a Hydrogen Jet , they will be rolling in cash.

Of Course, the ideal thing would be a joint developed Hydrogen jet built by Airbus and Boeing, but trans atlantic relations between France and the U.S. just are not good enough for that yet. Mabey if Chriac's sucessor is more warm towards the U.S., but not right now.

[Edited on 9/10/05 by airline55]

[Tump]

First of all.... neither Boeing or Airbus will make a 737 or A320 replacement soon..... why kill your own succes. All the orders they still generate make them big bucks. It is when the first of these two will fail to sail, that company will start the development of the next generation 130/150 seater. My money is that that will be Boeing, but we won't know for sure... if it is Boeing I am confident it will be a deriative from the 787. At least, a new design based on proudctions methods and materials from the 787.

And Piercey you said that Bombardier will continue to sell the CRJ well for a long time. They won't! The CRJ's are generating less and less orders. The CRJ-900 only had one customer, the CRJ-700 is selling less, and the CRJ100/200 had its time.

Also Hydrogen powered aircraft... hmm I am not so sure about this. I think we will more likely see a new type of fuel that will suit the mainstream of current engines though....

[piercey]

First of all.... neither Boeing or Airbus will make a 737 or A320 replacement soon

look for an anouncement from Boeing 2008 earliest, Airbus 2010 (after 787, A350 orders are being delivered)

piercey you said that Bombardier will continue to sell the CRJ well for a long time. They won't! The CRJ's are generating less and less orders. The CRJ-900 only had one customer, the CRJ-700 is selling less, and the CRJ100/200 had its time.

Point, I don't follow Bombardier that much.

[airline55]

why kill your own sucess? good question? why didn't you give us an answer. Their greatest sucess would be to create a replacement. Several of the older 737s are nearing replacement age and airlines may want to put off replacement if they know much better jet in coming.

[jf]

The question is not about airframe makers, but engine makers. All 4 majors have invested in new materials and revolutionary wing designs. But all these new birds are still running on JP-4. A new fuel will definitely be a revolution in air travel. And that will come from R&R, P&W, SNECMA and GE. Not A, B, BA or E.

As for Bombardier, the CSeries must be lauched. It is vital for it's survival since the company's bread-and-butter (the CRJ200) is dying down. That bird created a new market that is now saturated. The 700 is doing fine, but an old interior ain't helping at all. The 900 is on the rise, especially in Europe (3 new customers, 4 in discussions). The Q400 come-back is not a surprise, with it's high speed, fuel efficiency and pax load. CL-415 could come back to life with a huge order (50+ airframes) for an un-disclosed 3-US states deal.

I hope that Bombardier still goes on strong. It's MY bread-and-butter.

[Tump]

Originally posted by airline55
why kill your own sucess? good question? why didn't you give us an answer. Their greatest sucess would be to create a replacement. Several of the older 737s are nearing replacement age and airlines may want to put off replacement if they know much better jet in coming.

With over 750 737s on order (source Flight Intl. World Airlines Cencus) Boeing is absolutely not going to build a replacement soon. They just keep on cashing in on the current 737s till the moment it stops generating orders.


-

And yes I also believe the future of aviation lies in the hands in a new type of fuel that will most likely can be used on most of the current engines.

[piercey]

Yes, but what will that new type of fuel be? Say what you want, Ethanol is not it, so what is it?

[airline55]

some things being looked into:

Solar
Hydrogen
Manure

[piercey]

Solar- good posibilaty, but need to make systems light enough to fit in plane

Hydrogen - Who knows.

Manure - *shakes head silently*

but, the first two would need new engine types and millions in research.

edit: 777 post

[Edited on 9/12/2005 by piercey]

[airline55]

manure, when heated, release a gas very similar to that of natural gas. This gas can be burned for fuel just as Natural Gas can. The problem is, who wants two load two tons of manure into a plane all day?

[Yesthatsme]

maybe they could compact the manure into a powder form so it whould be light. And they could have heaters on the planes

[Tump]

No Solar is ruled out, at least for large aircraft. It is just impossible to make solar cells efficient enough to generate that massive amount of energy needed. (However, maybe some revolutionary discovery will be done????)

[dreamlinerCP]

i think that Bombardier could do extremely well with the CSeries, if they end up launching it. it's size and range seems perfectly suited to replace the 732s and DC9s still flying out there. i personally think that there are a few major airlines that if Bombardier could get them on the project, they'd basically be set.
examples i think the CSeries would be perfect for include:
-Northwest, to replace DC9
-CanJet, to replace 732 & 735
-AirTran if they wanted to replace the 717
-Midwest if they wanted to replace the 717

[airline55]

nothingis ruled out. All this has to be made new anyway.

[flyhegs]

i won't talk about aircraft manufactorors but more about planes it self .
i think that fast new turpobprops should be build in the size of 30-70 seaters . also maube a turboprop-jet hybird 70-130 seater for 1,5h> could be made . However i think the A380 is needed . something that big is needed . as is a replacement for A320 and B737 , that isn't a B787 to B767 but a bit different .
i think that all flights shorter then 1 h should be moved to high speed trains if posssible , departing from airport to airport . Airports and train stations should merge .