13 replies to this topic

[Tump]

What are your thoughts about this besides that the price will rise of course.... more like, how the world of aviation is going to look like? From what I last heard this is going to happen in 2008, but that is just speculation of course.




*Found this topic on a diff. aviation forum and its quite interesting.



[Edited on 6/4/2005 by Tump]

[ealvarez]

have they even started researching alternate fuels for aviation? its not that far away for the auto industry, there are already a few out there. wonder if the aviation industry will pick up on some of these sources. aircraft powerd by hydrogen? or maybe somethin else. dont see electric aircraft anywhere in the future, requires way too much power for an aircraft

[Tump]

no, as far sas I know Boeing nor Airbus is taking any actions yet to design new engines for aircraft. Its not their concern right now. They just optimize their planes so that airlines still buy them, but it will probably be the airlines concern when the oil prices get out of hand.

but think about it, what will happen if the fuel price rises significantly, ticket prices need to be raised.... mojave will get very busy and only a few lucky airlines will survive, at least that is if no technological advances are being made.... hydrogen powered on an airplane, i dont think so, nuclear power, yea rite..., bio diesel? => ok lets start turning the whole african continent into grain fields.... hmmm so whats left??????????


....the whole world of aviation being grounded - no more planes flying for Uncle Sam, no Virgin souring through the sky

its not that easy for the aviation industry as it seems (!) for the car industry

[Edited on 6/5/2005 by Tump]

[Maestro69]

Its just the matter of the economic viability of the product on offer!!!!

At present, it is still cheaper to buy oil at the current prices than other alternative fuels, such as hyrogen. However, within the next 20 years as the price of oil raises due to demand outstripping supply and reserves decreasing around the world, u will see that people will start to look at other alternative fuels, such as Hydrogen, to be used in cars, aircraft, etc... becuase it will be cheaper than oil, so it will become economically viable to change fuels when this happens!!!

From what i see, its the engine suppliers who have to deal with the manufacturing of newer engines. I think in the next 20 years, they will need to develop engines to use hydrogen and therefore, Boeing and Airbus will then need to build aircraft which can take hydrogen on board, which wont be a safety concern incase of an emergency, such as fire on board the aircraft!!!

Thats my thoughts!!!!! :cool:

[Chicken]

It is more than the economic viability of the product on offer, it also includes basic issues of safety and storage. Hydrogen is basically a vapour, and it therefore must be stored as a pressurised gas. For a long haul flight, the hydrogen will be at extremely high pressures. So the plane becomes a flying bomb.

And when hydrogen leaks, well, who knows where it will go? A liquid fuel leak will basically drip, but hydrogen is a pressurised vapour that will go where the rapid discharge velocity of the leak sends it before it starts to blend with surrounding atmosphere and rise.

And a lightning strike on a plane with a hydrogen leak?

A more fundamental but obscure answer is to find a use for sulphur. If we can find a use for sulphur, then more high-sulphur crudes can be developed and brought to refineries, and the problem can be delayed until better technology can be developed. About 25 years ago, less than half of all sulphur produced in the world came from processing oil and natural gas, now it is closer to 100%. For the first time, we are starting to see a difference in price between low sulphur (sweet) crude oil and high sulphur (sour) crude oil.

If we do not want more sulphur, then we will need to look to converting gas-to-liquid technology to convert natural gas to liquid fuels.

[Mexicana757]

I can just see the future airplanes with solar panels on the wings.

If demand is greater than what can be produce, oil will be more expensive. Flying will become more expensive. Prices will rise mostly on everything that uses oil to produce and transport products and services. I'm sure there will be greater research on alternative fuel source. Also expect some countries to give a tax break to those that install solar panels in their homes to cut on the use of oil or gas.

[AceMaxwell]

If that happens I'm inventing engines that will run on urine, or going into biz mass-brewing Biodiesel, and damn the petrol-diesel!

As it is I brew my own Biodiesel for my truck; I get the same MPG as petrol-diesel, same power from the engine and no harmful exhaust. So If'n this does happen I'll not be affected too much.

Perhaps we'd find a way to run prop jobs on Biodiesel?or maybe even someone will find a way to get the turbines running on biodiesel?

[MarkATC4N64]

TURST ME IT WONT GO OUT FOR ANOTHER 100 YEARS

[Stevphfeniey]

^^ Classic Republican is being a Classic Republican

[mariowebbocious]

So what happened in 2008, then?
:-P

[ar157]

we hit peak oil in 2006 did we not?

[Alfrenzo]

We did.

[M4matthew]

"What if the demand of oil gets larger than the production...."

Then oil prices go up, like they have been doing a lot of recently!

...Funnily enough global consumption has fallen at a very fast rate over the past 3 years (recession being the primary cause), yet production has fallen even sharper causing a slight rise in prices over that time.

The middle east uprising isn't helping the situation and considering Western countries rely on cheap fuel it's no wonder NATO's sorting these nations out (Libya). It's also why Russia and China keep vetoing

....

There is still a heck of a lot of oil left untapped - the only problem is the 'easy' oil has gone and we're left drilling deeper and deeper, paying more and more and further increasing our risks of more oil spills. *cough* BP *cough*

[ar157]

Then the others said we hit peak oil in 2020