28 replies to this topic

[miller22 (inactive)]

Predictions on what I believe will happen before the end of November.

Independence will announce the parking of the rest of their CRJ fleet, and Virgin America will announce their aquisition of Independence.

Chautauqua will see a 20% reduction in 145 flying, and a 30% reduction in 135 flying.

Comair will lose 30-50 aircraft.

Skywest/ASA will get through unscathed.

Mesa will scrap their plans in Hawaii. If not, and even more distant prediction will have Mesa failing miserably.

Within the next year, American will file for bankruptcy.

Just some educated predictions. Discuss, and don't forget to invite your friends!

[drv4truk]

Those are pretty good. However, you seem to have stayed away from Northwest Airlines. Any predictions on that?

Independence may get to keep at least some of their identity. Although I do believe (unforunately) that it is near the end for them.

[miller22 (inactive)]

There's grumblings of a Northwest/Delta merger, but I would strongly discourage this. CAL/DAL merger would be more beneficial.

That's just speculation, though.

[Atlantic_Air]

How about continental?? how do you think they're going to do by the end of november? they seem to still be expanding...copenhagen and barcelona has been released, starting next year may i think.

[JulieS]

Independence lost their CFO 2day...never a good sign...always a really bad sign when a company is in such a precarious position. AA going chap 11, i have doubts, especially given that UA appears to have secured exit $$$...what really needs to happen is a revision of the rules governing going chap 11 in the airline industry. It should not be indefinite as in the case of UA...if you file, you would be forced to have three things...financing lined up, a revised biz plan, and an exit date within 3-4 months of going chap 11...if you fail to get out of bankruptcy in 3-4 months, the airlines assets are liquidated, end of the saga...it is totally anticompetitive to have all these airlines "protected"...i read that Southwest has a failing biz model given the price of oil, and that is just junk...becuase the writer took fuel hedging out of the equation for operational success, which is akin to taking any other critical element out of the success model, the calculus dictates that you hegde successfully, which southwest did and ought be lauded for...ignoring that facet is the same as considering removing the engines from aircraft in order to save on weight and fuel costs;)

[drv4truk]

ROFL. Good point Julie S. The Southwest business model will live on for a while. If that were truly the case, then I guess some of these airlines would have stopped trying to copy them. The current fuel prices suck and I'm surprised that more airlines haven't cut back on flights to start conserving fuel.

[piercey]

Originally posted by Atlantic_Air
How about continental?? how do you think they're going to do by the end of november? they seem to still be expanding...copenhagen and barcelona has been released, starting next year may i think.

Listen, until Jane Campbell (mayor of cleveland) gets her head out of her @$$ and realize that CLE needs a bigger runway for bigger planes so CLE can become the next CVG, CO will not progrees b/c they have two real hubs and one that they want as a real hub. Why did we relect Campbell......

but, CO will still be the best of the legacys, even after bankruptcy is over for NW, US, UA, and DL b/c they have one thing that the others don't have: management that keeps employs happy

[wdleiser]

CAL......... is really COA

Delta/NorthWest Merger would not be good. Delta is way to deep in debt at the moment. If they can start to get rid of some of their debt then a merge could possibly be forseeable.

[piercey]

CAL is Continental's stock symbal

[wdleiser]

but their IAVO symbal is COA

[drv4truk]

Originally posted by wdleiser
CAL......... is really COA

Delta/NorthWest Merger would not be good. Delta is way to deep in debt at the moment. If they can start to get rid of some of their debt then a merge could possibly be forseeable.

That so scares me. I can't stand Delta. Sooner or later one of the bankruptcy courts or somebody will relize that it may be beneficial for the industry as a whole to have some of these airlines go completely under instead of allowing them to merge or reorganize. I'm just wondering which airline will be the first to get with it. That should send a message to the existing airlines that multiple bakruptcies will not be tolerated. Shareholders and employees should be tasked with keeping an eye on upper management and making sure they airline does not go into bankruptcy.

[miller22 (inactive)]

The only reason Delta is in bankruptcy is because they've been competing directly with US Airways and United who've been in bankruptcy for years. This is the same reason American will declare bankruptcy, and ultimately Continental. If USAirways alone had been allowed to disappear, Delta would not be in Chapter 11. If United had been allowed to disappear, or at least forced to leave bankruptcy, Delta would most likely be profitable.

And who said this was a deregulated industry?

[drv4truk]

It all goes back to the same thing. Declare bankruptcy so that the airline can stop paying on the pension plans and the tab for that gets picked up by the PBGC. Once the first airline was able to do it, the rest are now going to follow just to try and level the playing field. Not to mention that they can negotiate with the unions for lower wage and benefit concessions.

[miller22 (inactive)]

Absolutely correct.

[drv4truk]

Originally posted by piercey
Listen, until Jane Campbell (mayor of cleveland) gets her head out of her @$$ and realize that CLE needs a bigger runway for bigger planes so CLE can become the next CVG, CO will not progrees b/c they have two real hubs and one that they want as a real hub. Why did we relect Campbell......

CLE doesn't need bigger runways. It's got enough traffic already. http://www.airliners....file/266005/M/
That's one of my favorite shots.

[Edited on 10/8/2005 by drv4truk]

[piercey]

As much as I love Embrear......

IT MAKES FOR AWWWWWFUL SPOTTING!!!!!!! I WANT 747'S!!!!!!!!!!!

[Atlantic_Air]

Originally posted by piercey

Originally posted by Atlantic_Air
How about continental?? how do you think they're going to do by the end of november? they seem to still be expanding...copenhagen and barcelona has been released, starting next year may i think.

Listen, until Jane Campbell (mayor of cleveland) gets her head out of her @$$ and realize that CLE needs a bigger runway for bigger planes so CLE can become the next CVG, CO will not progrees b/c they have two real hubs and one that they want as a real hub. Why did we relect Campbell......

but, CO will still be the best of the legacys, even after bankruptcy is over for NW, US, UA, and DL b/c they have one thing that the others don't have: management that keeps employs happy

i really don't like how continental is handeling cleveland...it really sucks. i believe they only have seasonal service to london gatwick on 757's...if there was a bigger runway, i could easily see BA and AF making flights to paris and london...as well as some more destinations for CO, such as amsterdam, rome (there, im being optomistic), and paris. maybe even on bigger planes than 757's. There's market in cleveland that's not being taken advantage of, in my opinion.

sorry about your mayor, that must really suck.

my little airport (Corpus Christi) is finally going to be called an International Airport again!!!!! Aeromar applied for service from Reynosa - Corpus and Monterrey - Corpus, starting Nov. 15, still pending gov. approval though

[piercey]

First, the only International destinations from CLE are AC and CO flights to YYZ, LGW hasn't been served since three yrs ago.

Another problem also is the fact that the NIMBYs are out in full force. Campbell wants all or nothing and refuses to allow negotiations for time-restrained slots.

[Atlantic_Air]

how longs she gonna be ur mayor for? haha.

[piercey]

four more years.

If AKR had any type of brain at the moment, they would extend their runway, build some train tracks to CLE, and tell CO to come on over. I wish.