Declining interest in 100-160 seater aircraft
#1
Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:53 PM
- 737max7 58 orders
- A319neo 30 orders
- CS100 123 orders
- CS300 249 orders
- E190-E2 63 orders
- E195-E2 65 orders
So what is the reason for this? If you look at the current generation 737-700 did pretty well with over 1,100 deliveries and A319 performed even better with over 1,400 deliveries, also Embraer sold about 700 E90/E95s.
CSeries is a completely new program, so it's not unexpected that it's selling slowly, but on the other hand it sold better than all the re-engined popular types combined. At the same A320/A321neo and 737max8/9 are killing it and regional jets are still in demand(E75-E2 has more orders than E90+E95 combined). The gap between 50-90 seater RJs and 180 seater A320neo and Max8 is a big one.
At some point around 3,000 A319s, 737s and E jets as well as hundreds of aging 733s, 717s, MD-80s and F100s are going to retire. Are larger aircraft adequate replacements or could at such point the interest for these types spark again?
I don't know why, but I love aircraft from this segment, especially A319 and E90 so it would be a shame to see them come to an end.
#2
Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:09 PM
As long as humans still are at the controls... imo... plane size will continue to go up due to economics. As soon as AI takes over as full time pilot, plane sizes will come down for the very same reason.
#3
Posted 16 February 2018 - 04:21 PM
"Because economics" is a really dumb explanation. It's like saying something happens "because reasons".
Now if you'd said "100-160 seat market is declining because given the engines equipped on those aircraft are more economical (ie better optimized) for 160-220 seat aircraft" that would make way more sense.
#4
Posted 16 February 2018 - 04:22 PM
Also what economical argument is there for "once we get unmanned commercial aircraft the average passenger capacity will go down"?
#5
Posted 17 February 2018 - 04:40 PM
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#6
Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:22 AM
Single isle body aircraft are becoming more and more popular if anything. It's just that the airlines have now more variety of options to consider. During the time of 737NG and A320ceo, there's not really a worthy competition between them.
#7
Posted 19 February 2018 - 11:52 AM
As long as humans still are at the controls... imo... plane size will continue to go up due to economics. As soon as AI takes over as full time pilot, plane sizes will come down for the very same reason.
This statement has no consistency and it is more like a guess made in thin air. Obviously you have no idea how airlines industry works. How planes increased in size exactly? A-380 went from marvel to almost obsolete in 10 years and Boeing when they hear about the future of 747 they point to 777.
Also there will be no AI only cabin at least in the next 30 years. I don't see a way you can convince 200 people fly behind a sophisticated computer. Yes pilots make mistakes, but humans have natural trust bias towards other humans overseing a process.
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