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What if... the A380 is a total flop


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#21
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Originally posted by davidt

By the way, I've heard other tales of the A380 - that it will contain things like restaurants, gyms, etc. and that there is a high capacity design that will accomodate 1,000 economy seats! I can see it now - "Please arrive at least 6 hours prior to your flight!"


No it won't - it'll be so expensive to run it'll be full of seats.

That's jsut marketing spin - at first people said the 747 coudl have a bar upstrairs.. look what happened to that :D


The original 747s did have bars, lounges, etc. upstairs, on Pan Am and on other carriers. I flew BA from IAD to LHR many, many years ago (after getting bumped off my PAA flight) and First was upstairs. It was very cosy and fun although after the first 10 minutes or so the novelty had worn off since it was much like being in any other First cabin.

You all arew forgetting which airlines are the launch and primary customers for A380 - mainly Asian and Middle Eastern carriers. The A380 will be a boon for the Hadjj, which it will probably see 700 seats crammed in for. That alone will make it worthwhile for some carriers.

Boeing is scared of Airbus, never forget that.

[Edited on 10/23/2004 by Stoweman]

#22
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I wouldn't expect to see too many of those ammenities aboard the A380's when they're flying. If they're a restaurant in an A380, it'll be because a cargo operator is transporting an entire restaurant.

They'll pack that thing full of seats, drop the prices, and then complain about how there's soooo much excess capacity.

#23
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Well I was watching the local news and they where showing the mock-up videos of the A-380s interior. While I was watching it I was thinking "no airline who cares about their bottom line is going to have all this." I mean when the revenue generated by having economy seats in the space taken by the duty-free shop excedes the forcased profits generated by a duty-free shop the whole shop will be dumped.

If and I stress if Boeing does go on with the 747-400 ADV, it could hurt the A380s sales.

I still believe that the 747 will still be the Queen of the Skies because most people don't know anything about airplanes and the little they do know is the 747. My dad keeps on calling the DC-10 a 747 and thinks the 757 is bigger than the 747 because of the numeration :D

#24
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Lol it's not only your dad messing up numbers.. you should see the dutch newspaper! (MD-75?????????? - 717) (Excel aviation group???? EXEL and so on.........)

Now that are just two examples.....

#25
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lol, an AeroMexico press-release about the new 737-700s accedently called them 737-300s :D

In addition to the aircraft's flexibility to fly long and short-range routes and thereby cover 90 per cent of the company's destinations, the B737-300 is also replacing older aircraft, such as the airline's MD82 and MD83 models, thus lowering Aeroméxico's average fleet age to 12.


Link to Press Release

#26
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Originally posted by davidt
What annoys me so much is people are charmed into thinking it's going to revolutionise the market because airbus place a nice big staircase and bar in a mock up interior.

Which airline in their right mind's going to do that? It's going to be STUFFED with economy, and possibly a bit more business and first - thats it.


Virgin Atlantic has bought A380's WITH bar's and casino's.
I have that information from the A380 reveal special on CNBC Europe.

#27
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I am sure the A 380 will become a succes.
Economical succes, perhaps.
Political succes, for sure.
It's like the Concorde (though A380 has got considerable more orders and thus not being such a financial disaster), the airplane is great and revolutionises airtravel in some fields. It will boost the prestige of the European aircraft manufactering industry.
But I don't see the A380 getting a lot orders in the near future, unless the world's economy suddenly gets a boost. However, I think it has still potential to become a financial succes for airbus and getting more orders around 2010. That is when all the airlines that haven't bought one see how pleased (or not) other airlines like Virgin, Quantas, Etihad are. It's like with the 737, when the performance turned out to be great, more airlines started to buy it.
But time will tell. (Personally I do hope that KLM purchases a few and that they let me fly one :cool: )

P.S. Quite a lot of US airports aren't doing much to accomodate A380s..... Atlanta, Chicago O'Hare, Las Vegas mcCarren (as alternate dest. for LAX).... seems they don't want to invest a few hundred million dollars in something they will not likely make ever profit of.

[Edited on 2/14/2005 by Tump]

#28
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He's right. I also think A380 sales will be stagnant for the next 5 years after this initial order. It's possible they may not make many more after this initial. Think about this. Most of the majors are having tough times on international routes, which this is the A380's niche. Sales for the 787 are skyrocketing because it's cheaper and smaller with a similar range. This jet will possibly be like a "Titanic" class carrier, high luxury and "cattle-car" high-density routes, without the disaster of course, for many years until global fears of terrorism ease. This craft would've done better had it been introduced 10 years from now. Hope production can last that long.

On a side note, I'm betting Korean Air will use one from DFW to SEL. Right now they use a maxed-out 747-400 on the route, and I'm betting they'll do a high-density version. This is my best chance to fly this thing, unless an Asian carrier runs one from LAX to HKG.

#29
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"We'll call it, the Titanic of the skies!"
-Jon Stewart as Tony Blair

A good alternative airport for LAX is VCV, that way they can leave it there next to DL's tristars and UA's 727s. :D

All jokes aside. At this moment, there are very little routes that would need the A380. Some airlines that don't really need it (aka Virgin) are buying it to show off. Kind of Sir Richard Branson "Mine is bigger than yours!" to BA. That is why he is saying they will have bars and stuff so there aren't that many empty seats on the plane. Empty seats don't just mean lost revenue, its bad publicity for a airline. As the market grows, they will start replacing those bars and gyms with seats as fit the routes needs. Imagine flying LHR-LAX or some other route on an A380 with 800 seats when only 500 are being used? you might thing, "Virgin is doing bad, it can't fill its A380."

#30
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SEA's not going to have the A380:)

#31
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In AE it will :cool::D

#32
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In AE, u will the A380 flying to airports that in real life, wouldnt even see the A380 !!!

#33
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but boys and girls remember,

* the A380 cant fly! it is just so ugly the earth repels it.. :P

* if you will fart enough in it, it will fill up with hot gas and you got a zeppelin :)

* the A380's engines are so huge that a bird wont stand a chance when the bird is flying 150 meters or less in front of the plane :o

* Emirates doesnt need the A380s seats and space, they only want them to build Dubai's new golf resort in one of them :P

* Korean Airlines doesnt need A380s either, I mean you can easily pack 800+ Koreans in an A320, so whats the deal? (sry for you asians here, couldnt resist :D)






(from the original saying: helicopters cant fly, theyre just so ugly the earth repels them :D)

#34
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I believe that there is a market out there for the A380, take the DUB-LHR route (I'm not saying that we'll ever get the A380 on that route!)
Aer Lingus and BMI combined have 20 return flights daily with the A321, based on standard 200 seats, with pretty much full load factors, thats 4000pax per day, combine that with Ryanairs 738's going to STN (12 times daily), LTN (5 times daily), LGW (5 times daily), British Airways 735's going to LGW (4 times daily) and Cityjet's BAe146's going to LCY (5 times daily). Thats a heck of a lot of flights! So I believe that there is a need for the A380 in Europe anyway, as that kind of demand exists. Also one more thing, Aer Lingus's 2 flights to JFK last week (On thursday I think) had 317 souls on board, both of them! And that was not even during peak traffic.

#35
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Imagine the possibilties for problems. Any carrier that would pack 900 people on the plane can't be very safe. If the plane went down...
Also, FedEx will be operating it. At ANC, the sometimes land on 14. The land before the runway is a couple of bluffs. There's a recreation area just before the runway. If something hazardes is on board the plane, and it comes in a little low...

#36
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Hahahaha were you talking serious about the A380 DUB - London flights???? I hope not for your own sake :P

I mean think about it: its a 30/45 minute (maybe less?) flight, an A380 can do a turn around in a minimum of 1 hour. Thats not very efficient :) And the key of short distance flights and business travellers is that they want to have flights on different times on the day (go to meating early in morning, fly back in the afternoon) and high frequencies with A380 are nearly impossible + I for a starter wont like to spend more time queing than flying. (Waiting for all those people to get off/on board)
Oh and one route that requires an A380 is not enough to keep/make it profitable :P

Oh and if something hazardousis aboard a Fed Ex plane and it 'comes in a little low' it really wont matter if it is a MD11 or A380 :o
(Oh, A380 doesnt require more runway than a MD11 so doesnt have to come in lower anyway, landing performance of the A380 is quite similar to all the other big aircraft flying today. :D And Kai Tak has proven B747s or any other large aircraft can do hazardous approaches very well ..... hmmm maybenot hazardous but abnormal approaches)



[Edited on 5/12/2005 by Tump]

#37
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I think that the A380 will be a flop because of the fact that there are so many seats they won't fill up and in the end loose the company money.

#38
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Originally posted by a
I think that the A380 will be a flop because of the fact that there are so many seats they won't fill up and in the end loose the company money.


i disagree with this, every day, companys fill 747's so why wont they fill A380's, there is only an extra 100 seats or so, it wont be that hard to fill

#39
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Hahahaha were you talking serious about the A380 DUB - London flights????

I'm not saying that we'll ever get the A380 on that route!

lol, I dont think it will happen any time soon... Nearly 1 hour flying time as you need to take the holds over London into account.

Look at the Realworld B744D's, some airlines will have LESS seats on the A380's!

Also all A380's wont be in 28 inch seat pitch config, (Like those bloody B732's that RYR still have a DUB :mad: ) So I'm sure we can fill them.


[Edited on 18/7/2005 by StephenM]

[Edited on 18/7/2005 by StephenM]

#40
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listen people, Airports such as LHR and NRT need the A380... EDDF is getting there too. They are all very slot restrictive. Now you try and tell me how an airline can ups it frequencies with 2 777's or 787's from LHR to JFK when there are no more available slots.




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