45 replies to this topic

[Sunshine Airways CEO]

what if the global economy is yet not ready for the A380? I know that there would be a bunch of "we told you so" threads on a.net

[ithboy]

I don't think the A380 is going to be that great. The thing is a monster. 540 seats!!! What market could you enter that on?

[davidt]

What annoys me so much is people are charmed into thinking it's going to revolutionise the market because airbus place a nice big staircase and bar in a mock up interior.

Which airline in their right mind's going to do that? It's going to be STUFFED with economy, and possibly a bit more business and first - thats it.

[davidt]

If we all start flying these monsters then surely there'll be more seats than passengers?

[miller22 (inactive)]

The trend in the industry seems to be smaller airplanes at higher frequencies. The US domestic market, especially, is moving towards more smaller aircraft and less connections. Boeing announced the 7E7 to bring that same point-to-point capability to international markets. Embraer's 170-190 series is extending the ranges for 70-110 seat aircraft, and Bombardier has just announced plans for an intercontinental 110-135 seater.

The A380 just doesn't seem to fit. I'm sure FedEx and other cargo carriers will love it, but is that going to be enough to justify the development cost? The 7E7, if as successful as Boeing claims, could indirectly become the A380's biggest competitor, as the Boeing product will be able to overfly hubs where the A380 will be picking up enough passengers to make it profitable. The LHR-JFK example may prove a large enough route to justify an A380, but remember that not all of the LHR-JFK passengers are O&D. This means that the 7E7 would be able to steal passengers away from the hubs, offering non-stop flights which is always desired by the public. Routes such as LGW-IND, MCI, BNA, and STL will once again become available with the 7E7, and no longer will passengers in those cities be required to travel to Dallas, New York, Chicago, or Atlanta to jump the pond.

The cost efficiencies of monster-hubs are quickly being diminished by the more economical small aircraft. The RJ revolutionized the US domestic market, and I'd be willing to bet the 7E7 will do the same with the international market.

How much room does this leave the A380?

[davidt]

I do like the look of the 7e7 - shaping up very well.

As for the a380, they build it down the road from here

[miller22 (inactive)]

If, and thats a big if, the 7E7 can deliver on promises, it will be revolutionary.

[Sunshine Airways CEO]

but will the 7E7 be able to sport AA or AM's liverys? as in will composites be able to be able to shine?

[davidt]

Originally posted by S.A. 13
but will the 7E7 be able to sport AA or AM's liverys? as in will composites be able to be able to shine?

Is that so much of a problem at the moment?

[Sunshine Airways CEO]

Originally posted by davidt
Is that so much of a problem at the moment?

well the bare metal look is a big part of their livery

[ithboy]

Originally posted by S.A. 13

Originally posted by davidt
Is that so much of a problem at the moment?

well the bare metal look is a big part of their livery

lol this is just to funny. Though I would miss the AA bare metal look if it goes:(

[Skycap]

With the current state of air travel, I would have to say that Miller is probably right. Cargo carriers will love the A380 as they can make less trips. Human "cargo," however, is a different story. People prefer the flexibility of multilple flights. In many cases, the A380 would replace several flights with one or two. So if your flight is cancelled, that's it folks! And if your bags don't make it, wait 'till tomorrow!

On the serious side, though, you have to remember what happened to the original jumbo jets - Boeing almost went bankrupt developing the 747 and McDonnell Douglas came even closer. Lockheed WAS forced to close it's doors after developing the wonderful L-1011. At the time, there just wasn't enough demand for an aircraft of that size. Today, with the advent of the RJ and the realization that smaller, more efficient aircraft are more cost effective, take up less space, and generally offer more flexibility than those giants, I believe that the A380 will be way out of place. Sure, there will be some carriers that will find a use for them - but only on the highest capacity routes that can actually support such a beast.

By the way, I've heard other tales of the A380 - that it will contain things like restaurants, gyms, etc. and that there is a high capacity design that will accomodate 1,000 economy seats! I can see it now - "Please arrive at least 6 hours prior to your flight!"

That's another thing to consider - yes, the A380 will FIT (barely) within the current 80x80 gate space, but what about inside the terminal? I haven't seen many terminal interiors for the jumbos (just BOS and LHR and it was a long time ago). Can they actually support having 5-600 or more pax in there waiting for 1 aircraft?

[Skycap]

Also, if we should (heaven forbid!) have another incident like 9/11, look what that did to the industry! Airlines forced to close their doors, reduction of services, downsizing of aircraft to stay afloat. The release of the A380 in a time like that would almost certainly seal it's fate. When an airline is trying to survive the last thing they want to do is order some brand new aircraft, much less the monster that is the A380. You could probably buy a small airline for the price of one of those!

One other thought - I wonder if the military will show an interest in it. What a troop carrier that would be! Imagine dropping 1000 troops out of 1 plane - or a tank battalion!

[Edited on 10/4/2004 by Skycap]

[davidt]

By the way, I've heard other tales of the A380 - that it will contain things like restaurants, gyms, etc. and that there is a high capacity design that will accomodate 1,000 economy seats! I can see it now - "Please arrive at least 6 hours prior to your flight!"

No it won't - it'll be so expensive to run it'll be full of seats.

That's jsut marketing spin - at first people said the 747 coudl have a bar upstrairs.. look what happened to that

[EuropAir]

One word: CARGO

[Sunshine Airways CEO]

Originally posted by EuropAir
One word: CARGO

Isn't the 747 more fit for cargo, being that it would be much cheeper to buy and convert with so many out there, or will the dreded "s" word (subsidies) pop out?

[davidt]

[i]Originally posted by EuropAir[/i#]
One word: CARGO

One word: Antonov

[EuropAir]

Isn't the 747 more fit for cargo, being that it would be much cheeper to buy and convert with so many out there, or will the dreded "s" word (subsidies) pop out?

If you think Boeing never received subsidies you are being very naive.

[Sunshine Airways CEO]

Originally posted by EuropAir
If you think Boeing never received subsidies you are being very naive.

i'm not trying to start an A Vs B thread here; enough of them in a.net. I know that Boeing has had subsidies before.

With the 744s getting older, wouldn't cargo companies look more into converting 744s into Freighters instead of buying the "brand new" A380?